Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Winter Weather

Many thanks to the Rutland Herald for their useful help for this Blog…
So did you see the article in the Newspaper on the Winter Weather Prediction? "Numb's the word," says the 192-year-old Farmers Almanac, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 percent to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.The almanac's 2009 edition, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder-than-average temperatures this winter, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.The almanac predicts above-normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February, and above-normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions will likely have an unusually wet or snowy February, the almanac said.In contrast, the usually wet Pacific Northwest could be a bit drier than normal in February.The almanac — not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac which is 26 years older — attributes its forecasts to reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon.Weatherbee's outlook is borne out by e-mails the almanac has received in recent days from readers who have spotted signs of nature they say point to a rough winter, Geiger said. These folklore signs range from an abundance of acorns already on the ground to the frequency of fog in August.The National Weather Service disagrees. Their outlook calls for warmer than normal weather this winter over much of the country, including Alaska, said Ed O'Lenic, chief of the operations branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The almanac and the weather service are in sync, however, in pointing to a chance of a drier winter in the Northwest.Probably about the only thing that everyone agrees on (including me) is that it is generally impossible to come up with accurate forecasts more than a week in advance."Of course it's possible to prepare a forecast with any lead time you like. Whether or nor that forecast has any accuracy or usable skill is another question," he said.The Farmers Almanac sticks to its guns, saying the almanac was on target in the 2008 edition when it said the Northeast and the Great Lakes would have a long, cold winter with lots of snow. Time Will tell……
Bruce Schmidt
Vice-President & General Manager
Okemo Mountain Resort

No comments: